The economic activity of the U.S. in the second quarter of '23 (on the path of expansion).

The economic activity of the second quarter has rebounded in the United States, according to the median estimate from multiple sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. This stronger estimation supports the expectation that the US economy will continue to experience moderate expansion in the second quarter, as indicated by the official quarterly report set to be released later this month. CapitalSpectator.com. Esta estimación más sólida respalda la expectativa de que la economía de Estados Unidos continuará experimentando una expansión moderada en el segundo trimestre, según el informe trimestral oficial que se publicará más adelante este mes.

Se espera que el crecimiento (actividad económica) aumente un 1.9% (tasa anual ajustada estacionalmente para el PIB) durante el período de abril a junio, según la estimación mediana. Esta proyección es ligeramente inferior al aumento del 2.0% observado en el primer trimestre. La Oficina de Análisis Económico publicará su estimación inicial del PIB para el segundo trimestre el 27 de julio.

The updated revision of the second-quarter forecast, with a 1.9% increase, represents a significant improvement compared to the previous median estimate of 1.3% published on June 20.

However, some economists continue to see challenges on the horizon, pointing out that manufacturing is contracting and that the recent rise in interest rates, expected to continue, will soon lead the economy into a recession

Economic Activity (Arguments)

The main argument against the recession forecasts is that consumers continue to spend while businesses hire more workers. Personal consumption expenditures increased for the fifth consecutive month in June, albeit at a slow pace. However, the year-over-year trend of expenditures remains relatively stable at over 6%.

Employment in the United States increased vigorously by 339,000 in May, reaching the highest level in four months. The June labor market update, set to be released on Friday, is expected to show a softer increase of 213,000, according to Econoday.com's consensus forecast. Nonetheless, if accurate, that will still be high enough to confirm that hiring remains strong enough to sustain economic expansion.

There are several underlying risks that could create problems for the economy later in the year. However, for now, the chances of a recession having begun or being imminent, according to the NBER's definition, are low. Unless there is an epic collapse in the upcoming June data, the expansion of the United States appears poised to persist.

References

International Monetary Found, OCDE, World Bank